2027 Best Director Oscar nominations
Leader sits at 93% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 71%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Christopher Nolan
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
71¢
Denis Villeneuve
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$836
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
509 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?: Cristian Mungiu
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-CRI
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?: Olivia Wilde
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-OLI
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?: Curry Barker
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-CUR
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?: Paweł Pawlikowski
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-PAW
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?: Martin McDonagh
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-MAR
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?: Joel Coen
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-JOE
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?: Javier Calvo
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-JAV
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?: Greta Gerwig
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-GRE
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?: Denis Villeneuve
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-DEN
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?: David Fincher
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-DAV
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?: Danny Boyle
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-DAN
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?: Christopher Nolan
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-CHRI
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?: Christopher Miller
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-CHR
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?: Andrew Haigh
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-AND
2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?: Alejandro González Iñárritu
KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-ALE
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Christopher Nolan receives a Best Director nomination at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. At 89%, the market is pricing in a strong expectation of his inclusion among the five nominated directors. Nolan's high probability likely stems from his track record of Oscar recognition and presumed high-profile projects in development. The main factors driving this level are the perceived quality and commercial prominence of films likely to compete in 2027, as well as historical patterns of recognition for established auteurs. The probability will face its primary test at the Academy Awards nominations announcement in January 2027, when the final five directors are officially revealed. Between now and then, film festival reactions, critic consensus, and trading activity around competing directors will provide interim signals about market confidence.
- ›Christopher Nolan's historical Academy recognition rate across previous Best Director nominations versus non-nominations
- ›Release dates, critical reception, and award-season momentum of Nolan's 2026-2027 theatrical releases relative to competing directors' films
- ›Martin McDonagh's contract pricing at 54¢ indicates meaningful probability mass (~54%) on an alternative director, constraining total nomination odds
- ›Trading volume concentration shows minimal recent activity on Nolan's contract despite high price, potentially indicating settled expectations rather than active debate
- ›Typical Academy voter behavior patterns: incumbent prestige directors face both higher baseline nomination odds and greater vulnerability to year-specific factors like film performance
What moved the line
- Aug 7Alejandro González Iñárritu↑8pp49→57¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Olivia Wilde↓7pp42→35¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Olivia Wilde↓7pp35→28¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Christopher Miller↑7pp6→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Danny Boyle↓7pp10→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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