2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread despite over two years until expiry, suggesting minimal trader interest in this niche Oscar prediction.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread despite over two years until expiry, suggesting minimal trader interest in this niche Oscar prediction. The 473.6% implied yield on the Yes side is notably inflated due to the low price and long duration, but the sharp 50% price decline over seven days (22¢ to 11¢) indicates either deteriorating conviction or thin-book volatility rather than fundamental reassessment. With only $2,328 open interest and a cliff risk index of 8, this market lacks the depth needed for reliable probability estimation and carries significant execution risk.
Resolution rules
If Michael has been nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-MIC yes 100