Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on December 31?
0x6f87a9ce2b5e45a22317fd7809894d287925abd2f8d843e7cb75641435c7feba · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 260 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 528.8% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 37.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 1.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 1.14 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1120% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 4.68 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.8/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 0% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
183 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x6f87a9ce2b5e45a22317fd7809894d287925abd2f8d843e7cb75641435c7feba yes 100