Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This market prices Barack Obama's 2028 Democratic nomination bid at just 6¢ with minimal liquidity ($504 open interest and zero 24-hour volume), suggesting very low conviction among traders that he'll run. The wide 4¢ spread and lack of cross-venue pricing data make it difficult to assess whether 6¢ represents fair value or a stale quote, though the probability aligns with public statements from Obama discouraging another candidacy. With roughly three years until expiration, the market has ample time for sentiment to shift, but current pricing reflects the consensus view that a comeback bid is highly unlikely.

Resolution rules

If Barack Obama announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

Regime

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