Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This Chris Van Hollen nomination market shows extreme asymmetry with a 175% annualized yield on Yes contracts versus just 19.5% on No, despite the 29¢ price suggesting only 29% implied probability—a classic sign of low liquidity ($2,305 open interest) and wide 5¢ spreads creating outsized returns for contrarian bets. The 302% realized volatility and recent 4¢ price jump over 7 days indicate this is a thin, reactive market where small order flow drives large percentage moves, and the 2.06 vol ratio suggests elevated uncertainty relative to the information arrival rate of 0.3/h. With 625 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this market has meaningful time value but remains illiquid enough that any Van Hollen campaign signal could trigger sharp repricing.

Resolution rules

If Chris Van Hollen announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade