Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This market on Ruben Gallego's 2028 Democratic primary candidacy has experienced dramatic downward pressure, collapsing 26 percentage points over seven days from 60¢ to 34¢, suggesting a significant shift in market sentiment about his likelihood to run. The 113.5% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the sharp repricing and creates an asymmetric risk profile, though thin 24-hour volume of just $17.81 raises questions about liquidity depth and whether the price movement reflects genuine conviction or thin-market volatility. With 624 days until expiration and a tight 1¢ spread, there's ample time for the market to reprice, but the recent sharp decline warrants monitoring for what catalysts drove the shift.

Resolution rules

If Ruben Gallego announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

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