Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028
Ruben Gallego is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 24¢ bid, 29¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.
Price history
25¢ current
−27¢Contract brief
If Ruben Gallego announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ruben Gallego
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
Josh Shapiro 74¢
Range
5¢-74¢
Family volume
$9K
Identifier
KX2028DRUN-28-RGAL
Jul 24, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
24¢
Ask
29¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$9K
Orderbook snapshot
24 / 29¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Ruben Gallego announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KX2028DRUN-28-RGAL
Event family
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$9K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Josh Shapiro 74¢
Current share
17%
Josh Shapiro
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-JSHA
Ro Khanna
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-RKHA
Cory Booker
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-CBOOK
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-AOC
Mark Kelly
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-MKEL
Chris Murphy
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-CMUR
Wes Moore
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-WMOO
Jared Polis
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-JPOL
Elissa Slotkin
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-ESLO
Raphael Warnock
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-RWAR
Abigail Spanberger
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-ASPA
Ruben Gallego
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-RGAL
Gretchen Whitmer
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-GWHI
Hunter Biden
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-HBID
James Talarico
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-JTAL
Tim Walz
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-TWAL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Gavin Newsom December 2025: How California’s Governor Is Shaping the 2028 Presidential Odds
In-depth look at Gavin Newsom’s status in December 2025, his California record, and what prediction markets are signaling about his 2028 presidential chances.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 25% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.