Will average **gas prices** be above $4.40?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $4.40?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 37,054% implied yield on the Yes side despite a neutral regime and only 13 days to expiration, suggesting the 7¢ price may be artificially depressed by low liquidity ($36,923 open interest) and a wide 3¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 37,054% implied yield on the Yes side despite a neutral regime and only 13 days to expiration, suggesting the 7¢ price may be artificially depressed by low liquidity ($36,923 open interest) and a wide 3¢ spread. The sharp 7-day decline from 25¢ to 7¢ combined with a realized volatility of 3,967% and high cliff risk index of 13 indicates significant recent price volatility that may not reflect fundamental changes in gas price expectations. With current U.S. gas prices around $3.00-$3.20, a move above $4.40 in 13 days would require an unprecedented spike, making the 7% probability reasonable, though the extreme yield suggests potential arbitrage for sophisticated traders willing to accept the illiquidity risk.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.40 on Apr 30, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASM-26APR30-4.40 yes 100