Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (96%) that California gas prices will exceed $6.40 by end-2026, yet this conviction sits atop minimal liquidity with only $274 open interest and just $5 in 24-hour volume.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (96%) that California gas prices will exceed $6.40 by end-2026, yet this conviction sits atop minimal liquidity with only $274 open interest and just $5 in 24-hour volume. The dramatic 7-day price movement from 4¢ to 59¢ suggests either a significant catalyst or thin-market volatility, while the 9¢ spread and asymmetric yields (102% for Yes vs. 195% for No) indicate traders are significantly more confident in the bullish outcome despite the No side offering substantially higher returns.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for California are strictly greater than $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-6.40 yes 100