Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with the Yes side priced at 75¢ implying a 472.5% annualized yield versus just 42.2% for No, suggesting traders heavily favor gas staying below $4.60 despite current pricing near $3.50 nationally.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with the Yes side priced at 75¢ implying a 472.5% annualized yield versus just 42.2% for No, suggesting traders heavily favor gas staying below $4.60 despite current pricing near $3.50 nationally. The zero 24-hour volume combined with a wide 10¢ spread and modest $1.2k open interest indicates thin liquidity, making the 75¢ price potentially unreliable for actual execution. The recent 3¢ decline over seven days and neutral regime score offer no clear directional signal, though the 259-day timeframe provides substantial room for gas price volatility to resolve this bet.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Texas are strictly greater than $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-4.60 yes 100