Will average **gas prices** be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Will average **gas prices** be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with the Yes position trading at an eye-watering 2214% implied yield against just 9% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or very low conviction among traders given the $0 volume in 24 hours and minimal $453.82 open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with the Yes position trading at an eye-watering 2214% implied yield against just 9% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or very low conviction among traders given the $0 volume in 24 hours and minimal $453.82 open interest. The 20¢ price implies only a 20% probability of sub-$3 gas by end-2026, which appears pessimistic considering gas averaged $2.50-$3.20 over the past decade and currently sits around $3.10, making the threshold achievable within 258 days under modest demand or supply shocks. The 10¢ spread and near-zero liquidity suggest this is a thin, illiquid market where the quoted price may not reflect true consensus, and the recent 5¢ price jump (from 1¢ to 6¢ over seven days) hints at potential manipulation or a single trader moving the needle.
Resolution rules
If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is less than $3.00 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-3.00 yes 100