Will average gas prices be below $3.80 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 51% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 41%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below $3.40
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
41¢
Below $3.20
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$912
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
188 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be below $
Will average **gas prices** be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.00
KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-3.00
Will average **gas prices** be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.20
KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-3.20
Will average **gas prices** be below $3.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.80
KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-3.80
Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.60
KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-3.60
Will average **gas prices** be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.40
KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-3.40
Will average **gas prices** be below $2.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.80
KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-2.80
Analysis
Prediction markets are pricing a 93% chance that average U.S. gas prices will exceed $4.40 by year-end 2026, with declining probabilities at higher thresholds ($4.50 at 82%, $6.80 at 66%). This reflects expectations that prices will remain elevated through December, driven primarily by global crude oil supply dynamics and seasonal demand patterns. The current market view suggests prices are unlikely to fall below $3.80, though contracts show non-trivial probability mass above $7.60 (31%) and below $2.00 (6%), indicating tail-risk positioning. Resolution depends on OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical stability in key oil regions, and U.S. refinery capacity—factors that typically shift between now and Q4 2026. The sharp probability cliff between the $4.40 and $4.50 thresholds suggests this range represents the market's highest-confidence prediction band.
- ›Current U.S. average gas price relative to $4.40 threshold and trend direction over past 3 months
- ›OPEC+ oil production quotas and compliance rates announced through 2026, particularly decisions in Q2-Q3
- ›Geopolitical events affecting Middle Eastern crude supply or shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz
- ›U.S. refinery utilization rates and any announced maintenance or outage schedules for H2 2026
- ›Historical seasonal patterns showing summer-to-fall price movements and their deviation from current implied volatility
What moved the line
- Jun 26Below $3.20↓31pp45→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Below $3.60↓28pp82→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Below $3.60↓23pp54→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Below $3.00↓13pp41→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Below $2.80↓12pp14→2¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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