Will average gas prices be below $3.80 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 22% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below $3.60
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Below $3.20
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$168
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
98 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be below $
Will average **gas prices** be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.20
KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-3.20
Will average **gas prices** be below $2.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.60
KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-2.60
Will average **gas prices** be below $2.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $2.80
KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-2.80
Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.60
KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-3.60
Will average **gas prices** be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.40
KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-3.40
Will average **gas prices** be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Below $3.00
KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-3.00
Analysis
Markets currently assign a 94% probability that U.S. average retail gasoline prices will settle below $3.80 per gallon by year-end 2026. This reflects expectations that crude oil prices will remain moderate and refinery capacity will sustain adequate supply through December. The primary driver of this high probability is that $3.80 sits well above recent historical norms—the past five years show prices below this threshold most of the time. Key uncertainties include OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical events affecting oil supply, refinery disruptions, and demand fluctuations tied to economic activity. The market's confidence weakens substantially at lower thresholds: contracts priced at 61¢ for below-$3.40 and 26¢ for below-$3.00 suggest meaningful downside risk is already priced in. Real-time catalyst events—such as major refinery outages, international supply shocks, or shifts in Fed policy affecting the dollar and crude demand—could move these probabilities notably. Resolution depends on final-month price data through December 31, 2026.
- ›OPEC+ production policy decisions and announcements through Q4 2026, which directly influence global crude oil supply and pricing
- ›Refinery operating rates and unplanned outages in the U.S., affecting gasoline processing capacity and regional price spreads
- ›Geopolitical events or supply disruptions in major oil-producing regions that could tighten or loosen global crude markets
- ›U.S. dollar strength relative to other currencies, which inversely affects crude oil prices priced in dollars and import competitiveness
- ›Economic growth expectations and fuel demand forecasts, particularly for driving season demand in summer and early autumn months
What moved the line
- Sep 18Below $3.60↓15pp41→26¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Below $3.40↓11pp31→20¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Below $3.20↓6pp20→14¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Below $3.00↓6pp13→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Below $3.60↓5pp26→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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