What will be the price of a foldable iPhone?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that What will be the price of a foldable iPhone?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in an 87% probability that Apple's first foldable iPhone will launch at $1,800 or higher, reflecting strong consensus around premium positioning, though the extreme 941% implied yield on the "No" side suggests minimal conviction in lower pricing.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 87% probability that Apple's first foldable iPhone will launch at $1,800 or higher, reflecting strong consensus around premium positioning, though the extreme 941% implied yield on the "No" side suggests minimal conviction in lower pricing. With zero 24-hour volume against $3,079 open interest and a wide 7¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained despite the high probability, creating potential execution challenges for traders. The 260-day timeframe to resolution and neutral regime score offer stability, but the 7 cliff risk index warrants caution around potential binary shifts if Apple signals unexpected pricing strategy changes.
Resolution rules
If the first price announced for a foldable iPhone is at least $1800, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAPLPRICEFOLD-27-1800 yes 100