What will be the price of a foldable iPhone
Leader sits at 91% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 59%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least $1800
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
59¢
At least $2000
Spread
32pp
contested
24h volume
$295
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
133 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will be the price of a foldable iPhone
What will be the price of a foldable iPhone?: At least $2000
KXAAPLPRICEFOLD-27-2000
What will be the price of a foldable iPhone?: At least $1800
KXAAPLPRICEFOLD-27-1800
What will be the price of a foldable iPhone?: At least $2200
KXAAPLPRICEFOLD-27-2200
Analysis
Markets currently reflect an expectation that if Apple releases a foldable iPhone, it will cost at least $1,800, with lower probability assigned to higher price points. This pricing structure reflects existing foldable device costs (Samsung Galaxy Z Fold currently $1,799–$1,999) and Apple's historical premium positioning. The main drivers are Apple's supply chain capabilities, component costs for foldable displays, and competitive pressure from existing Android foldables. An official product announcement or leak with confirmed specifications would be the primary catalyst to resolve current uncertainty around both whether a foldable iPhone launches and its price tier. Until then, markets are pricing in moderate confidence in a premium-tier release rather than a budget alternative.
- ›Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6 launched June 2024 at $1,799, establishing the current market baseline for flagship foldables
- ›Apple has not confirmed a foldable iPhone; announcement date remains speculative, making price discovery purely forward-looking
- ›Historical pattern: Apple's first-generation flagship devices typically price at or above competitor equivalents (original iPad, Apple Watch Series 1)
- ›Foldable display component costs have declined year-over-year but remain the primary manufacturing constraint limiting sub-$1,500 pricing
- ›Market probability divergence ($1,800 at 90% vs. $2,200 at 42%) suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether Apple opts for premium tier or competitive positioning
What moved the line
- Aug 15At least $2000↑18pp39→57¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20At least $2000↓12pp55→43¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 14At least $2000↓9pp48→39¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17At least $2200↑6pp32→38¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17At least $2000↓5pp57→52¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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