Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before Aug 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 71% probability that Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney Genera.... This contract trades at 71¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. This market is pricing in a 76% probability that Trump announces an AG nominee before August 2026, but the extremely thin liquidity ($62 open interest, $0 volume in 24 hours) and wide 7¢ spread suggest the price may not reflect true market consensus.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 76% probability that Trump announces an AG nominee before August 2026, but the extremely thin liquidity ($62 open interest, $0 volume in 24 hours) and wide 7¢ spread suggest the price may not reflect true market consensus. The dramatic yield asymmetry—133.7% for Yes versus 883.9% for No—indicates severe illiquidity skewing risk-adjusted returns to 442%, making this a speculative position rather than a reliable probability estimate. The recent 4¢ decline over seven days combined with 106 days to expiry and moderate cliff risk suggests limited conviction among traders.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump has made any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) naming his nominee for Attorney General before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAGANNOUNCE-26-AUG01 yes 100