Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 292.0ㅤ?
Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 292.0ㅤ?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the theoretically massive 4401% risk-adjusted yield on the No side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the theoretically massive 4401% risk-adjusted yield on the No side. The 13¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the price, and the recent 6¢ upward movement (80¢ to 86¢) over seven days suggests some late positioning despite the dead market. With only 25 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, this contract faces significant resolution uncertainty, making it unsuitable for serious trading until liquidity materializes.
Resolution rules
If the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 292.0ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAIRFARECPI-26MAY12-T292.0 yes 100