Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
Leader sits at 84% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 75%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 300.0ㅤ?: Above 300.0ㅤ
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
75¢
Airline Fares in U.S. City A
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$5
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 14, 2026
18 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 314.0ㅤ?: Above 314.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26JUL14-T314.0
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 318.0ㅤ?: Above 318.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26JUL14-T318.0
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 316.0ㅤ?: Above 316.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26JUL14-T316.0
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 312.0ㅤ?: Above 312.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26JUL14-T312.0
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 310.0ㅤ?: Above 310.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26JUL14-T310.0
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 308.0ㅤ?: Above 308.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26JUL14-T308.0
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 306.0ㅤ?: Above 306.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26JUL14-T306.0
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 304.0ㅤ?: Above 304.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26JUL14-T304.0
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 302.0ㅤ?: Above 302.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26JUL14-T302.0
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 300.0ㅤ?: Above 300.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26JUL14-T300.0
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 298.0ㅤ?: Above 298.0ㅤ
KXAIRFARECPI-26JUL14-T298.0
Analysis
This 81% probability indicates that prediction-market traders expect airline fares in the Consumer Price Index for urban consumers to exceed 304.0 in April 2026. The contract pricing reflects broader expectations about travel demand and fuel costs heading into spring. The primary driver appears to be seasonal airline pricing patterns, where spring and summer typically see elevated fares due to increased leisure travel demand. The resolution date is April 2026, meaning the outcome depends on actual CPI data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in early May 2026. The high probability suggests traders view airline fares exceeding this threshold as the base case, though the significant gap between the 61-cent top contract and 95-cent lower thresholds indicates some uncertainty about how far above 304.0 fares might climb. Factors that could shift this include fuel price volatility, airline capacity decisions, and changes in consumer travel patterns heading into the summer season.
- ›Seasonal airline pricing historically peaks in April-May, making elevated fares a typical outcome
- ›Jet fuel prices and global oil markets significantly influence airline pricing power and final fares
- ›The top contract (above 304.0) trades at 61¢ versus 95¢ for thresholds at 282-288, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about the upper bound
- ›Consumer travel demand in spring 2026 depends on economic conditions and employment trends in early 2026
- ›BLS will release April 2026 CPI airline fares data in early May 2026, definitively resolving this contract
What moved the line
- Jun 21Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 298.0ㅤ?: Above 298.0ㅤ↓32pp83→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 298.0ㅤ?: Above 298.0ㅤ↑18pp65→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 310.0ㅤ?: Above 310.0ㅤ↓18pp34→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for June 2026 be above 298.0ㅤ?: Above 298.0ㅤ↑14pp51→65¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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