Will Dan Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
KXAKSENATE-26NOV03-DSUL · closes Nov 3, 2027 · 568 days remaining
Price
Last
39¢
Bid
39¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
2¢
24h Volume
$294
Open Interest
$19,050.87
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 100.6% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 41.1% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 50% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
9 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/14/2026, 11:46:06 PM
About this market
If Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXAKSENATE-26NOV03-DSUL yes 100