Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 9¢ spread and only 13 days to resolution, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a stale quote.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 9¢ spread and only 13 days to resolution, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a stale quote. The implied yields are nonsensical (307% for Yes, 24,863% for No), indicating the pricing model has broken down in the absence of real trading activity. With Spain's recent economic resilience and the Q1 2026 flash estimate approaching imminent release, this market appears abandoned and should not be treated as a reliable probability signal.
Resolution rules
If Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above -0.1 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXESGDPQOQF-26APR30-T-0.1 yes 100