Will Joshua McKee be the Republican nominee for AL-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will Joshua McKee be the Republican nominee for AL-01?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 6¢ spread and modest $579 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction around McKee's nomination odds.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 6¢ spread and modest $579 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction around McKee's nomination odds. The 2¢ price implies a 2% probability but generates an outsized 1548.8% annualized yield on a Yes position, reflecting the long 566-day timeframe and low base rate rather than genuine edge. The flat 7-day price action and neutral regime score indicate this is a speculative, low-activity market where the quoted price may not reflect true consensus.
Resolution rules
If Joshua McKee wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 AL-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXALPRIMARY-01R26-JMCK yes 100