Will Gary Palmer be the Republican nominee for AL-06?
Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will Gary Palmer be the Republican nominee for AL-06?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 4¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 4¢ spread. The massive 1226% implied yield on the "No" side and 613% risk-adjusted yield suggest severe mispricing or a liquidity desert rather than genuine market consensus that Palmer has zero chance. With 566 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, this appears to be an abandoned or newly-created market lacking sufficient trading activity to establish meaningful price discovery.
Resolution rules
If Gary Palmer wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 AL-06 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXALPRIMARY-06R26-GPAL yes 100