Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 150 commercial deliveries in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 71% probability that Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 150 commercial deliveries in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 71¢ on Kalshi, closing August 27, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $8.28 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 71¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 9¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $8.28 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 71¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 9¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—172% for Yes versus 458% for No—suggest the market may be mispricing tail risk, particularly given Boeing's recent production challenges and the aggressive 150+ delivery target for Q2 2026. With 130 days to expiry and minimal trading activity, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than an efficiently priced prediction.
Resolution rules
If Boeing Company (The) reports Above 150 commercial deliveries in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBA-26JULDELIV-150 yes 100