Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 140 commercial deliveries in Q2 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability estimates whether Boeing will deliver more than 140 commercial aircraft in the second quarter of 2026. At 51%, the market views this as roughly a coin flip. Boeing's delivery rate depends primarily on production capacity constraints and supply-chain resilience following pandemic disruptions, as well as regulatory approval processes for aircraft models like the 737 MAX. The key resolution point occurs at the end of Q2 2026 (June 30), when Boeing reports official quarterly delivery figures. Movement in this probability before then will likely track Boeing earnings calls, FAA certification announcements, and any publicly disclosed production updates that signal acceleration or delays in their manufacturing schedule.

• ›Boeing's 737 MAX production rate has historically ranged 30-50 aircraft per month; reaching 140+ deliveries in Q2 requires sustained output above historical post-2020 averages
• ›Supply chain delays for engines and components remain a documented constraint; any major supplier disruptions or geographic geopolitical events could impact quarterly delivery targets
• ›FAA and international regulatory approvals for specific aircraft variants affect which models can be delivered; certification delays directly reduce achievable quarterly volumes
• ›Boeing's actual Q2 2026 delivery figures will be reported in their earnings release typically in late July 2026, providing definitive resolution
• ›Current order backlog and customer delivery schedules are publicly available; tracking cancellations or deferrals through May-June 2026 provides leading indicators of likely Q2 outcomes

What moved the line

• Jun 22Above 160↓57pp89→32¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Above 160↑50pp32→82¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Above 160↓19pp82→63¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 21Above 165↑18pp36→54¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Above 165↓18pp51→33¢ · Kalshi

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How we compute these odds