Will Oliver be the #1 most popular baby boy name in 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Oliver be the #1 most popular baby boy name in 2025?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $598 open interest, and the 3¢ price appears mispriced given the asymmetric implied yields (4563% for Yes vs.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $598 open interest, and the 3¢ price appears mispriced given the asymmetric implied yields (4563% for Yes vs. 4.4% for No). Oliver has consistently ranked in the top 2-3 baby boy names for years, making a 3% probability seem artificially depressed, though the 32 Cliff Risk Index suggests potential resolution ambiguity around the SSA's exact methodology or timing. The market's long duration until 12/31/2026 and stalled price action indicate minimal trader conviction, creating a potential arbitrage opportunity if Oliver's historical dominance is expected to continue into 2025.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Oliver is the #1 most popular baby boy name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBABYNAMEBOY-26DEC-OLI yes 100