Will Evelyn be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Evelyn be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This illiquid micro-market with just $86 open interest and zero 24-hour volume shows extreme pricing distortion, with a 4563% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects the 4¢ price rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market with just $86 open interest and zero 24-hour volume shows extreme pricing distortion, with a 4563% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects the 4¢ price rather than genuine probability assessment. The market has declined from 3¢ to 4¢ over seven days (a reversal), and with 259 days to resolution and a 32 Cliff Risk Index, there's substantial uncertainty about whether the SSA data will even be available or interpretable as specified. The 1¢ spread and negligible liquidity make this unsuitable for serious trading, as any position size would face severe slippage and the extreme yield figures are mathematical artifacts of near-zero prices rather than realistic return expectations.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Evelyn is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBABYNAMEGIRL-26DEC-EVE yes 100