Will Isabella be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Isabella be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 2¢ spread, suggesting the 4¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus given only $221 in open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 2¢ spread, suggesting the 4¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus given only $221 in open interest. The astronomical 3386% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a thinly-traded long-shot contract where even tiny price movements create outsized percentage returns, though the 4856% realized volatility indicates this metric is unreliable here. With 259 days until expiry and Isabella currently ranked #2 nationally (not #1), the low probability appears reasonable, but traders should be cautious of the illiquidity risk and potential for sharp repricing if volume eventually arrives.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Isabella is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBABYNAMEGIRL-26DEC-ISA yes 100