Size of Fed balance sheet on Dec 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 88% probability that Size of Fed balance sheet on Dec 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 88¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market is pricing in an 88% probability that the Fed's balance sheet exceeds $6.3 trillion by late 2026, yet shows virtually no trading activity with zero 24-hour volume and only $200 open interest, suggesting minimal liquidity and potentially stale pricing.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an 88% probability that the Fed's balance sheet exceeds $6.3 trillion by late 2026, yet shows virtually no trading activity with zero 24-hour volume and only $200 open interest, suggesting minimal liquidity and potentially stale pricing. The extreme 1269% implied yield on the No side combined with a 9/10 cliff risk index indicates severe mispricing or illiquidity rather than genuine market conviction, as such asymmetric yields typically reflect thin order books rather than fundamental disagreement. The price has risen 6 cents over seven days to 88¢, but with 259 days to expiration and negligible volume, this movement may reflect sporadic retail positioning rather than informed trading.
Resolution rules
If the value of Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level (WALCL) for Dec 30, 2026 is above $6.3 trillion, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBALANCESHEET-EO26-6.3 yes 100