Size of Fed balance sheet on Dec 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 71% probability that Size of Fed balance sheet on Dec 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 71¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing a 71% probability that the Fed's balance sheet exceeds $6.6 trillion by end-2026, but the extreme 642% implied yield on the No side signals severe illiquidity with only $250 open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 71% probability that the Fed's balance sheet exceeds $6.6 trillion by end-2026, but the extreme 642% implied yield on the No side signals severe illiquidity with only $250 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The sharp 7-point price rally from 75¢ to 82¢ over a week, combined with a wide 9¢ spread and elevated cliff risk (5/10), suggests this thin market may not reflect true consensus given its 259-day runway to resolution.
Resolution rules
If the value of Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level (WALCL) for Dec 30, 2026 is above $6.6 trillion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBALANCESHEET-EO26-6.6 yes 100