Size of Fed balance sheet on Dec 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 64% probability that Size of Fed balance sheet on Dec 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 64¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $83 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 64¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 10¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $83 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 64¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 10¢ spread. The No side offers an unusually high 362.6% implied yield versus 54.8% for Yes, suggesting the market may be mispriced or that traders expect significant Fed balance sheet contraction below $6.7 trillion by end-2026. With 259 days to expiry and recent price movement from 66¢ to 72¢, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than an actively traded contract.
Resolution rules
If the value of Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level (WALCL) for Dec 30, 2026 is above $6.7 trillion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBALANCESHEET-EO26-6.7 yes 100