Size of Fed balance sheet on Dec 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Size of Fed balance sheet on Dec 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market is pricing in only a 5% chance the Fed's balance sheet exceeds $6.9 trillion by end-2026, despite the extraordinarily high 329% implied yield on the Yes side—a significant disconnect suggesting either deep skepticism about balance sheet expansion or illiquidity-driven mispricing.
Analysis
This market is pricing in only a 5% chance the Fed's balance sheet exceeds $6.9 trillion by end-2026, despite the extraordinarily high 329% implied yield on the Yes side—a significant disconnect suggesting either deep skepticism about balance sheet expansion or illiquidity-driven mispricing. With just $100 in open interest, zero 24-hour volume, and a 9¢ spread, the market lacks meaningful liquidity, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable; the recent uptick from 29¢ to 30¢ over seven days may reflect thin-market noise rather than genuine conviction. Given the Fed's current balance sheet sits near $7.2 trillion and the resolution threshold is $6.9 trillion, the market is essentially betting on significant contraction over 259 days, which appears underpriced relative to historical Fed policy patterns.
Resolution rules
If the value of Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level (WALCL) for Dec 30, 2026 is above $6.9 trillion, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXBALANCESHEET-EO26-6.9 yes 100