Will US Supreme Court rule ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that Will US Supreme Court rule ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2029. This market prices a Supreme Court ruling on transgender sports eligibility at just 26% probability over a nearly 3-year window, yet the Yes side offers an unusually attractive 104.9% implied yield compared to only 13% for No, suggesting significant mispricing or risk premium for tail event litigation.
Analysis
This market prices a Supreme Court ruling on transgender sports eligibility at just 26% probability over a nearly 3-year window, yet the Yes side offers an unusually attractive 104.9% implied yield compared to only 13% for No, suggesting significant mispricing or risk premium for tail event litigation. The extremely thin liquidity of $4,012 open interest with only $73.40 in daily volume indicates this is a low-conviction market where large positions could move prices substantially, and the tight 1¢ spread masks potential execution challenges. With a Cliff Risk Index of 3 and maker-regime scoring, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a well-arbitraged contract, making the high Yes yield potentially compensation for illiquidity rather than true probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If US Supreme Court rules ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBANTRANS-26 yes 100