Will legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes become law before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 62% probability that Will legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes become law before Jan 1.... This contract trades at 62¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in a substantial 68% probability for federal deepfake legislation by end-of-2026, but the extremely thin liquidity ($0.25 daily volume, $1.5k open interest) and wide 6¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect robust conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a substantial 68% probability for federal deepfake legislation by end-of-2026, but the extremely thin liquidity ($0.25 daily volume, $1.5k open interest) and wide 6¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect robust conviction. The asymmetric yield profile—with No positions offering 229% annualized return versus 86% for Yes—indicates the market is compensating heavily for tail risk, possibly reflecting uncertainty about legislative momentum in a compressed 260-day timeframe despite recent policy attention to non-consensual intimate imagery.
Resolution rules
If legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes has become law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXBILLS-DEFY yes 100