Will 3 to 3 bills become law in Apr 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will 3 to 3 bills become law in Apr 2026?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $469.43, making the 24% price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $469.43, making the 24% price potentially unreliable. The implied yield of 10,029% on the Yes side is a mathematical artifact of the low price rather than a genuine opportunity, reflecting the market's thin depth and wide 5¢ spread. With only 15 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this contract carries significant execution risk, and the near-flat 7-day price movement (19¢ to 20¢) suggests limited conviction among the few participants trading it.
Resolution rules
If the President signs exactly 3 bills into law in Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-3.0 yes 100