Will 7 to 7 bills become law in Apr 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will 7 to 7 bills become law in Apr 2026?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This micro-liquidity market shows extreme pricing distortion with only $10 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 25,443% implied yield on Yes positions essentially meaningless.
Analysis
This micro-liquidity market shows extreme pricing distortion with only $10 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 25,443% implied yield on Yes positions essentially meaningless. The market has experienced volatile price swings (4¢ to 9¢ over 7 days, now settling at 7¢) despite negligible trading activity, suggesting the quoted prices may not reflect genuine market consensus. With just 15 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this market is illiquid and unreliable for serious prediction purposes—the 7% probability should be treated with extreme skepticism given the near-zero trading depth.
Resolution rules
If the President signs exactly 7 bills into law in Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-7.0 yes 100