Will 6 to 6 bills become law in Apr 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This prediction estimates the likelihood that exactly six bills will become law during April 2026. The 46% probability reflects substantial uncertainty about legislative output in the final days of the month, with markets pricing in declining probability as April winds down. The primary driver is the DHS funding bill, which contracts show strong odds of passing before July (95¢) but significantly lower odds before May 1 (23¢), suggesting most April legislative activity hinges on whether this bill moves quickly. The cross-venue gap of 11 percentage points indicates traders on Polymarket see higher odds than Kalshi participants, possibly reflecting different assessments of congressional momentum or procedural timing. The critical catalyst is May 1, which marks the formal end of April—any major bills signed on April 30 or earlier directly impact this outcome. Very low contract prices on the 5-to-5 scenario (3¢) suggest markets believe hitting exactly six bills is more likely than five.

• ›DHS funding bill passage timing: The 72-point gap between May 1 (23¢) and June 1 (86¢) probabilities indicates whether this major bill passes in April or rolls into May significantly determines the six-bill outcome
• ›Congressional calendar compression: Only 30 days remain in April as of today, limiting legislative opportunities; the density of scheduled votes and floor time will directly constrain maximum possible bill passages
• ›Current legislative pipeline: The presence of exactly six bills at an advanced stage ready for passage versus fewer or more would make the six-bill target either highly likely or improbable
• ›Cross-venue disagreement: Polymarket's 49% average versus Kalshi's 38% suggests different trader bases disagree on near-term congressional productivity by 11 percentage points
• ›Contract volume concentration: The DHS May 1 contract dominates volume ($219,760 24h), indicating this single bill's passage timing is the primary uncertainty driving the broader six-bill probability

What moved the line

• May 308↑26pp67→93¢ · Kalshi
• May 278↑22pp44→66¢ · Kalshi
• May 268↑11pp33→44¢ · Kalshi
• May 258↑10pp23→33¢ · Kalshi
• May 298↑3pp64→67¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds