Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Hike 1-25bps at the May Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Hike 1-25bps at the May Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board meeting?. This contract trades at 86¢ on Kalshi, closing May 6, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $882 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 62¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 28¢ spread suggesting uncertainty.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $882 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 62¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 28¢ spread suggesting uncertainty. The annualized yields exceeding 1,700% reflect the short 19-day timeframe to the May 2026 RBA meeting rather than genuine opportunity, and the realized volatility of 159% combined with a 24¢ price jump over seven days (27¢ to 51¢) indicates significant recent repricing. With minimal information arrival (0.7/h) and a neutral regime, this appears to be a thinly-traded contract where the price may not reflect true market consensus on RBA rate hike odds.
Resolution rules
If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of Hike 1-25bps at the May Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26MAY05-H25 yes 100