Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing December 9, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $458 open interest, making the 947.6% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $458 open interest, making the 947.6% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 10¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 25¢ price, and the recent sharp price recovery from 4¢ to 14¢ over seven days suggests either informed positioning ahead of the 237-day expiry or thin-book volatility rather than fundamental conviction. The 25% probability of a BoC rate cut by December 2026 appears reasonable given current policy trajectories, but traders should treat this as a speculative micro-market with significant execution risk rather than a reliable hedge.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Canada does a Cut of 25bps at its Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26DEC-C25 yes 100