Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 62% probability that Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 62¢ on Kalshi, closing July 15, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $326 open interest, suggesting the 60¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus—the 4¢ jump over seven days could reflect minimal trading rather than conviction.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $326 open interest, suggesting the 60¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus—the 4¢ jump over seven days could reflect minimal trading rather than conviction. The No side's 611% implied yield is notably inflated relative to the Yes side's 272%, a typical pattern in thin markets where small positions create outsized yield calculations. With 90 days to expiry and a low cliff risk index of 2, there's adequate time for price discovery, but traders should be cautious given the negligible liquidity and wide potential for slippage on any meaningful position.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Canada does a Hike of 0bps at its Jul 15, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUL-H0 yes 100