Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing June 10, 2026. The market is pricing in an extremely low 5% probability of a BoC rate hike by June 2026, with the Yes contract yielding an extraordinary 12,706.8% if it resolves positively—a classic sign of deep illiquidity given the $0 24-hour volume and only $800 open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an extremely low 5% probability of a BoC rate hike by June 2026, with the Yes contract yielding an extraordinary 12,706.8% if it resolves positively—a classic sign of deep illiquidity given the $0 24-hour volume and only $800 open interest. The price has tripled from 2¢ to 5¢ over seven days despite zero recent trading activity, suggesting the quoted spread may not reflect genuine market depth, and with 55 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 19, this contract carries substantial execution risk for any meaningful position.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Canada does a Hike of 25bps at its Jun 10, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26JUN-H25 yes 100