Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing October 28, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 195-day runway, suggesting minimal trader interest in this specific BoC outcome.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 195-day runway, suggesting minimal trader interest in this specific BoC outcome. The 0¢ price reflects near-zero conviction that a 25bps hike will occur, though the 1375.6% implied yield on the Yes side indicates substantial profit potential if the contract moves—a classic sign of mispriced tail risk in thin markets. The 10¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 7 underscore the lack of market depth, making this contract unreliable for serious position-taking.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Canada does a Hike of 25bps at its Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26OCT-H25 yes 100