Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing September 2, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price and 1618% implied yield unreliable indicators of true market sentiment rather than genuine pricing discovery.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price and 1618% implied yield unreliable indicators of true market sentiment rather than genuine pricing discovery. The 10¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract's value, and the high Cliff Risk Index of 6 suggests significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics or event definition. With 139 days to expiry and no recent price movement from the 1¢ level, this appears to be a dead or nascent market that lacks sufficient participant interest to establish meaningful odds on BoC rate cuts.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Canada does a Cut of 25bps at its Sep 2, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONCANADA-26SEP-C25 yes 100