Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?

This complex multi-condition market prices a severe economic downturn at just 24%, offering a 143% annualized yield on Yes positions despite 807 days to expiry—a notably high return that may reflect genuine tail-risk underpricing or the difficulty of hitting 3-of-4 extreme thresholds simultaneously. The 1¢ spread and $231k open interest suggest reasonable liquidity for a niche product, though the 7-day price stability (25¢ to 24¢) indicates limited recent conviction either direction. With a Cliff Risk Index of 3 and neutral regime, the market appears fairly balanced but skewed toward No, making this attractive for contrarian recession hedgers willing to hold through 2028.

Resolution rules

If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade