Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 91% probability that Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 91¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the massive 1139.2% implied yield on the No side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the massive 1139.2% implied yield on the No side. The 10¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the price, and the dramatic yield asymmetry (17.4% vs 1139.2%) suggests the market may be mispriced or simply abandoned—the cliff risk index of 8 indicates significant uncertainty about resolution mechanics. With 259 days until expiry and no recent trading activity, this appears to be a dead market that shouldn't be used for serious prediction purposes.
Resolution rules
If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCLAUDE-MYTH-27JAN01 yes 100