Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing January 3, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1,856% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 10.5% on the No side, suggesting the 8¢ price may undervalue Nebraska's chances of having the tightest race among all 2026 Senate elections.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1,856% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 10.5% on the No side, suggesting the 8¢ price may undervalue Nebraska's chances of having the tightest race among all 2026 Senate elections. The $7,756 open interest against minimal 24-hour volume ($1) indicates illiquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions, while the tight 1¢ spread provides some relief. With 261 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 13, there's adequate time for the market to calibrate, though the extreme yield differential warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine mispricing or structural market inefficiency.
Resolution rules
If Nebraska has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-NE yes 100