Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$27
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
210 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 2
Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Alaska
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-AK
Cluster 3
Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 4
Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Iowa
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-IA
Cluster 5
Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 6
Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 7
Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 8
Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 9
Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Cluster 10
Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Ohio
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-OH
Cluster 11
Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections
Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Texas
KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-TX
Analysis
This prediction assesses the likelihood that Alaska's 2026 Senate race will have the smallest winning margin among all U.S. Senate contests that year. The 17% probability suggests markets view this as unlikely but plausible. Alaska's Senate elections have historically featured competitive races, but the current assessment reflects expectations that other states may produce even tighter contests. The probability would rise if polling shows Alaska's race tightening significantly or if races in other competitive states appear to be widening. It would fall if other states develop more competitive dynamics. The outcome will be determined once all 2026 Senate results are finalized in November, with the margin of victory calculated for each race to identify the smallest.
- ›Alaska's historical voting patterns and current partisan lean relative to other 2026 Senate battlegrounds
- ›Candidate quality and fundraising capacity in Alaska versus competitive races in other states like Nevada, Arizona, or Pennsylvania
- ›Turnout dynamics and voter enthusiasm in Alaska compared to simultaneous 2026 gubernatorial and House races nationally
- ›Current polling averages for Alaska's Senate race versus early indicators in other competitive Senate states
- ›Whether Alaska's race remains a two-person contest or faces third-party or write-in challenges that could affect margin calculations
What moved the line
- Jun 6New Hampshire↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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