Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1426.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 14% on the No side, suggesting the 10¢ price may undervalue Google's coding model prospects despite Google's current dominance in AI.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1426.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 14% on the No side, suggesting the 10¢ price may undervalue Google's coding model prospects despite Google's current dominance in AI. The $71k open interest against only $152 in 24-hour volume indicates illiquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions, while the recent price decline from 10¢ to 9¢ over seven days hints at weakening conviction among holders. With 259 days to resolution and a narrow 1¢ spread, this market appears to be pricing in significant uncertainty about whether Google will maintain its coding leadership through end-2026, though the cliff risk index of 10 suggests binary outcome dynamics typical of winner-take-most AI benchmarks.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Google has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-GOOG yes 100