Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 60% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Anthropic
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
OpenAI
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$5K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
208 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-XAI
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-OPEN
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-GOOG
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that a single AI company will have demonstrably the best coding model by year-end 2026. The 28-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (49%) and Kalshi (21%) reflects disagreement on how to evaluate and compare coding capabilities across different vendors. Current market pricing suggests OpenAI and Anthropic are primary contenders, though recent April assessments show fragmented views on which company leads in specialized AI tasks. The probability will likely shift based on new model releases, benchmark results from independent evaluators like LMSYS or academic leaderboards, and how "best" gets operationalized—whether measured by coding accuracy, speed, real-world adoption, or specific benchmarks. Key resolution catalysts include major model announcements (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta typically release updates in clusters), publication of standardized coding benchmarks, and community consensus on evaluation methodology.
- ›OpenAI's current coding model is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket for best-coding-model-end-of-April, suggesting market skepticism of its near-term position despite historically strong coding performance
- ›Anthropic shows strong positioning in math reasoning (81¢) but unclear coding-specific strength, creating uncertainty about cross-domain model capabilities
- ›Polymarket prices are 2-3x higher than Kalshi equivalents across similar contracts, indicating structural differences in how venues' participants assess model competition
- ›No single standardized benchmark is referenced in current contracts; resolution depends on how the prediction market operator defines and measures 'best' coding model
- ›Eight months remain for multiple companies to release new models, making current April 2026 assessments potentially outdated by year-end evaluation date
What moved the line
- Jun 1Anthropic↑4pp54→58¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Anthropic↑4pp55→59¢ · Kalshi
- May 31OpenAI↑4pp24→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2xAI↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Google↓3pp10→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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