Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 0% probability that Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?. This contract trades at 0¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026.
Also on kalshi at 6¢(Δ -6¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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sf trade 0xb8683df5ebcc52d9f3577ce65667082544b368f7e3b84120aa345b31dd89d832 yes 100