Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market on Solana's 2026 returns shows extreme asymmetry with a 380% annualized yield on the Yes side versus just 52% on the No side, suggesting significant underpricing of positive outcomes relative to the risk-free rate.
Analysis
This market on Solana's 2026 returns shows extreme asymmetry with a 380% annualized yield on the Yes side versus just 52% on the No side, suggesting significant underpricing of positive outcomes relative to the risk-free rate. The 32¢ price has climbed 17% over seven days from 24¢, yet volume remains anemic at $149 in 24 hours with a 4¢ spread, indicating thin liquidity that could amplify moves as the 260-day expiry approaches. The realized volatility of 564% and elevated cliff risk (3/10) reflect crypto's inherent uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and moderate info arrival rate (1.6/h) suggest the market isn't currently pricing in imminent catalysts.
Resolution rules
If Solana has a positive return in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCRYPTORETURNY-26-SOL yes 100