Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026
Leader sits at 44% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Stellar Lumens (XLM)
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
190 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026
Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Ethereum (ETH)
KXCRYPTORETURNY-26-ETH
Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Solana (SOL)
KXCRYPTORETURNY-26-SOL
Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Stellar Lumens (XLM)
KXCRYPTORETURNY-26-XLM
Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Dogecoin (DOGE)
KXCRYPTORETURNY-26-DOGE
Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Bitcoin (BTC)
KXCRYPTORETURNY-26-BTC
Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Chainlink (LINK)
KXCRYPTORETURNY-26-LINK
Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Ripple (XRP)
KXCRYPTORETURNY-26-XRP
Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Polkadot (DOT)
KXCRYPTORETURNY-26-DOT
Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Shiba Inu (SHIB)
KXCRYPTORETURNY-26-SHIBA
Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Litecoin (LTC)
KXCRYPTORETURNY-26-LTC
Analysis
This probability represents traders' assessment that Bitcoin will finish 2026 with positive returns compared to its price at year-start. At 43%, Bitcoin is favored among the listed cryptocurrencies but remains below even odds. The current level reflects Bitcoin's 2026 performance so far—with the year more than one-third complete, traders are pricing in both realized gains to date and uncertainty around macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and technical market dynamics through year-end. Factors pushing this probability higher include continued institutional adoption or favorable regulatory clarity; factors pushing it lower include broader market downturns, tightening monetary policy, or major technical resistance. The resolution date is December 31, 2026, when Bitcoin's year-to-date return will be finalized and compared against its January 1, 2026 opening price.
- ›Bitcoin's year-to-date price performance as of May 3, 2026 compared to its January 1, 2026 opening price, which directly influences the probability of positive annual returns
- ›Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions and interest rate trajectory through 2026, which historically correlate with cryptocurrency market movements
- ›Regulatory announcements or legislative changes affecting cryptocurrency trading, custody, or taxation in major markets
- ›Competitive performance of other listed cryptocurrencies in the multi-outcome contract, which may shift capital allocation between assets
- ›Technical price levels and trading volume patterns that indicate strength or weakness in Bitcoin's uptrend through year-end
What moved the line
- Jun 18Bitcoin (BTC)↓13pp26→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Chainlink (LINK)↓9pp22→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Dogecoin (DOGE)↓8pp24→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Shiba Inu (SHIB)↓7pp16→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Stellar Lumens (XLM)↓6pp56→50¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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